Steve Behlman Jr. @redraftwarrior
July 27, 2017
When it comes to drafting your team in Fantasy Football, the last thing you want to do is overpay for a player. Yet every year a bunch of teams end up doing just that. Whether it’s in the first round or the fifth round, when you overpay it hurts. I’m going to run through a list of some big name players that according to Fantasy Football Calculators app, are going a little too high for my liking.
Brandon Marshall WR Giants (FFC ADP WR #25)
Last year with the Jets Marshall had 59 catches for 788 yards and 3 TDs. He did this on 128 targets. Now I know what you are thinking. Eli Manning should be an upgrade to the lackluster QB play he saw with the Jets. This may be true, but he also has never been on a team where he wasn’t the number 1 receiver. Currently held by a Mr. OBJ. Others might say he has a great chance for double digit TDs I don’t agree with this. Marshall looked extremely tired and old to me at the end of last year. He’s going into his 12th season at age 33. I’m not so sure how much juice he has left. The Giants drafted rookie tight end Evan Engram in the first round this year. I think he can be used like Jordan Reed is used in Washington. I also don’t think that Sterling Shepard is just going to disappear. He quietly had a successful rookie year posting 65/683/8. Right now, Marshall is being drafted as the 25th WR off the board. That’s around guys like Crowder, Tate and Fitzgerald. I can see the allure of Marshall there, I’m just not buying it.
Keenan Allen WR Chargers (FFC ADP WR #20)
In 2015 Allen was on pace for 130 catches about 1,400 yards and 7-9tds. This was cut short by a lacerated kidney in week 8. Last year he was going into the year as the number one target for Phillip Rivers’ pass happy team. Another promising season derailed by an ACL tear in week 1. Allen has only played 9 of 32 games the last 2 seasons. Not a great track record for a guy you are spending a 4th round pick on. Last season without Allen, Rivers had his 4th consecutive season with over 4,000 passing yards and 2nd most td passes of his career with 33. The Chargers also went out and grabbed rookie Mike Williams with the 7th overall draft pick. Between Williams, Hunter Henry, the emergence of Tyrell Williams and a stout running game, Allen could be hard pressed to produce wr1 numbers for 2017.
Jordan Howard RB Bears (FFC ADP RB #8)
You might be saying, “Why would you hate on a guy who finished as a top 10 RB last year?” Well let’s start off with saying I do think Howard has talent, but I’m afraid that alone isn’t going to be enough for him in his sophomore year. His 5.2 ypc are certainly due to regress. With a new QB at the helm and defenses preparing to stack the box, it’s going to be hard for Howard to pay dividends on your investment this year. Last season Howard had 50 targets and dropped 7 of them. That was tied for 3rd worst in the league. For this reason, the Bears went out to sign pass catching rookie RB Tarik Cohen. This leads me to believe Howard could lose some 3rd down work. FFC has Howard going as the 8th RB off the board. This is a little too rich for me. I do think Howard can finish as a mid-range rb2 this year but expecting another top 10 finish could cost you on draft day.
Spencer Ware RB Chiefs (FFC ADP RB #17)
Last season Spencer Ware was basically thrown into the fire with the starting gig in Kansas City. He did very well compiling 214 carries for 921 yards (4.3ypc) and had 33 catches for 447 yards and 5 total TDs. As the year went on it seemed like Ware was getting “Worn”. From week 8 on he only had one game over 15 fantasy pts (PPR). The Chiefs drafted Toledo’s explosive rookie RB Kareem Hunt in the 3rd round in this year’s draft. Hunt is already impressing coaches and has shown great ability to catch the ball in camp. I still think this is Wares job to lose. Although I don’t think we will have to wait long before Andy Reid starts giving Hunt more work. This will cut into Wares fantasy production big time. I think it’s safe to say that Ware can finish this year as an rb3 but to reach for him in the late 3rd early 4th as a potential rb1 seems a bit steep to me.
O.J Howard TE Bucs
(FFC ADP TE #11)
Who wouldn’t want to draft a 6’6” 250 TE athletic freak who was selected in the first round? Me that’s who, well at least for this year. Outside of Hunter Henry last season, there hasn’t been a rookie tight end to finish as a TE1 since 2010. That was done by both Patriots tight ends Aaron Hernandez and a guy name Rob Gronkowski. Last year TE Cameron Brate had a great connection with QB Jameis Winston. I think this chemistry will carry over to this year. The Bucs will run their fair share of 2 TE sets, so Howard could have a few nice weeks. But the rookie is still raw and will need to develop some trust with his QB. Fantasy Football Calculator has Howard going almost 4 rounds (10th) ahead of Brate and in front of guys like Jack Doyle, Eric Ebron and Julius Thomas. If you want a value grab Brate later or avoid all together. Let someone else overpay for the new shiny toy.
Martellus Bennett TE Packers (FFC ADP TE #7)
For the 2017 season Bennett has made the QB switch from Brady to Rodgers. Most might see this as a lateral move because both are elite QBs and both have potent offenses. But both teams utilize the TE position differently. Last year Bennett finished as a top 10 TE with New England. But if you owned Bennett last year you know that it didn’t come easy. Bennett finished with single digit fantasy points 10 times last season. 3 of his 7 TDs came in week 5 against Cleveland. Now playing for the Packers Bennett will give Rodgers another viable option downfield. Richard Rodgers is still on the team and will eat into some of Bennett’s potential targets this season. Bennett’s age (30) and recent ankle issues are enough for me to steer clear of him this season. FFC has Bennett getting drafted as the 7th TE off the board in the 7th round. Well before guys like Kyle Rudolph, Zach Ertz and Hunter Henry.
Matt Ryan QB Falcons (FFC ADP QB #5)
Last year Matt Ryan went from late round QB to league MVP. Things started to click for him in his 2nd year under Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Ryan had a career best ranking 2nd in passing yards, passing TDs and overall fantasy points. He averaged a ridiculous 9.26 yards per attempt and threw 38 TDs. He only hit the 30+ Td mark once in his prior 8 seasons. With Kyle Shanahan now the head coach in San Fran, newly acquired offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian calling the plays, and throw in a Super Bowl hangover, Ryan is due for some regression. FFC has Ryan going as the 5th QB off the board at the end of the 5th round. You are drafting this guy at his absolute ceiling there and that’s something I can’t do.
Andrew Luck QB Colts FFC ADP QB #4)
Let me start off with saying I am a huge fan of Andrew Lucks talent. But there are a few things that trouble me about where he’s being drafted. Luck is coming into the season fresh off shoulder surgery. He will begin the year on the active PUP list and is expected to miss the entire preseason. This means less time to work on the chemistry between his receivers of old and new (Aiken, Moncreif). But the thing that scares me the most about Luck is his protection. The Colts offensive line ranked dead last in pass blocking efficiency last year. Luck was sacked the 2nd most in the league with 41. They didn’t do a whole lot this offseason to address this deficiency. Unfortunately, they let all the big name free agents sign with different teams. They drafted a couple of young lineman in this year’s rookie draft. Apparently, they are hoping for the best and that they can learn quickly. Luck is being drafted as the 4th QB off the board in the early 5th round. There are just too many unknowns with Luck and the Colts for me to feel comfortable pulling the trigger on him that early.
Other Notable potential busts per Fantasy Football Calculator
Doug Martin RB Bucs - 19th RB mid-4th rd. (Suspended the first 3 weeks of the season) Ty Montgomery RB Packers – 21st RB mid-4th rd. Michael Thomas WR Saints – 7th WR early 2nd rd. Alshon Jefferey WR Eagles – 17th WR late 3rd rd. Delanie Walker TE Titans – 8th TE mid-7th rd. Jordan Reed TE Redskins – 3rd TE late 4th rd. (injury risk*) Derek Carr QB Raiders - 6th QB late 6th rd. Cam Newton QB Panthers – 8th QB mid-7th rd.