K-Mill's Sleeper and Busts #1

By: K-Mill
April 20, 2016

QB Sleepers:

  • Eli Manning (NYG)

Eli is a guy that isn't necessarily a sleeper, but he should be a guy that will be overlooked. He has back to back seasons over 4,400 passing yards. Eli had a career high of 35 passing TDs. He has the 3rd easiest strength of schedule going into next year and since the Giants have a shitty run game they'll probably lean on Eli's arm. He's been great the past two years and he should come at a value this year.

  • Jameis Winston (TB)

Coming off his rookie season where he had 22 passing TDs 15 INT 6 rushing TDs and over 4,000 yards passing, look for him to take the next step forward with a healthy ASJ, healthy V-Jax and the return of Doug Martin, plus Mike Evans should rebound nicely. He's a guy that you can draft at the back of the draft and could be a top 15 QB.

QB Busts:

  • Kirk Cousins (WAS)

Captain Kirk had his first season as the starter and I'm not too high on him this year. Last year Cousins was really only good at home against teams with poor defenses. He seemed to really struggle on the road and a lot of people don't realize that his numbers are skewed by him getting a sneaky 5 rushing TDs that he surely won't repeat.

  • Drew Brees (NO)

I have Brees on my bust list for many reasons that Johnny Slokes posted in his article. He has an awful schedule this season, especially at home where he normally excels. It's wide known that he tends to struggle on the road, but he also gets to play Denver and the NFC West. 


RB Sleepers:

  • Latavius Murray (OAK)

He's a sleeper as long as Oakland doesn't draft a back early. He was quietly pretty consistent last year with 267 carries and over 1,000 yards. Also had 41 receptions, making him a valuable PPR back, which is what we cater to. Another good aspect about Latavius Murray is that most teams next year will be focused on stopping Oakland's passing game, so he shouldn't face many base defenses. Currently going at a nice 4th round value.

  • Jay Ajayi (MIA)

Jay is a guy coming off his rookie year, in which he didn't get very many opportunities to make a big splash, but did flash some abilities that make me believe he can be something special if he is indeed the starter next year. Without Lamar Miller in town, he'll have some big shoes to fill, if he is up to the task then I can easily see him being an RB2.


RB Busts: 

  • Doug Martin (TB)

With the emergence of Jameis Winston, I feel like it will be hard for Doug Martin to replicate his 1,400 yard season from last season. Let's also not forget that he has had issues with injuries in the past and he has never strung together 2 straight successful seasons. Now don't get me wrong, I think he should probably be okay but for where you have to get him, I can see him disappointing a lot of people in this next upcoming season.

  • The Jacksonville backfield

Both Yeldon and Chris Ivory take away from each other's value this season and it's a shame where Ivory landed from a fantasy perspective. Yeldon seemed like he was poised to take on a bigger role as a complete 3 down back, but now it appears like Ivory will steal a lot of goal line work away from him. At the end of the day, they both take value away from each other and it makes it very hard to draft either player. This may be a backfield you want to avoid completely.


WR Sleeper:

  • Dorial Green-Beckham (TEN)

DGB is a raw athlete with lots of downfield ability, but was a bit inconsistent last year (549 yards and 4 TDs). If he can hone his skills a bit, he can transform into Tennessee's #1 wide out this year. He has a huge frame (6'5 237 lbs), runs a 4.49 to put fear into the defense, has great body control and he is tough as nails. I see a lot of Anquan Boldin in his game. If Tennessee wants to move forward they'll need DGB to develop into a dominate outside receiver.


WR Busts: 

  • Brandon Marshall (NYJ)

He's old. But that really isn't the main reason why I think he is going to be a bust this year. It has a lot to do with the fact that we don't really know the Jets QB situation. It's certainly fucked if they think Geno is the answer. We truly won't know until after the NFL draft, but one thing is certain: it will be difficult for Marshall to repeat a 1,500 yard season and he's going in the 2nd round at this time and i just don't believe he will return 2nd round value.

  • Demaryius Thomas (DEN)

Imagine that, I'm a Denver fan , but yet I don't care for DT this season. I'm sure I'm like a lot of other people with the same worries about weather Mark "butt fumble" Sanchez can get the ball to DT consistently enough to have him as your WR1. I'm certain I wouldn't have him on this list if Osweiler (Cockswallower) was still in town.


TE Sleeper:

  • Ladarius Green (PIT)

What a great fit for Green!! While he probably isn't a sleeper, I believe he is in line for a big season playing in Pittsburgh's pass happy offense. It's even sweeter for the fact that Martavis Bryant can't stop smoking pot, so now he'll have all those vertical seam routes over the middle. With only small sample sizes to shine in San Diego, now is his time to make a serious fantasy impact.


TE Busts:

  • Travis Kelce (KC)

Last season he was poised to have a stud like season and it disappointed a lot of people for where you had to draft Kelce. I see it being more of the same this year. They just don't have enough volume on that offense, especially with Jeremy Maclin demanding targets, makes it awfully hard for me to believe in Kelce this year. While he is a very talented tight end, expect underwhelming numbers again this year.

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